Midwest Storm Spotters League

Looks like things might get a little wild here in the midwest and plains states! Here is what the outlook is telling us:

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0356 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...

UNCERTAINTIES PERSIST DUE TO LINGERING SPREAD AMONG MODELS AND MODEL

ENSEMBLES CONCERNING THE NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A SIGNIFICANT

CLOSED LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE

WEEKEND. HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT

INSTABILITY...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD

VERTICAL MOTION WILL BECOME MOST SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER

POTENTIAL IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SUB-1000 MB SURFACE CYCLONE ON

SATURDAY...AS IT MIGRATES ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...TOWARD

THE GREAT LAKES REGION. EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK DESTABILIZATION...THE

ENVIRONMENT NEAR A 70-90 KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET STREAK AND

50-70 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A

SUBSTANTIVE REGIONAL SEVERE CONVECTIVE EVENT WITH DAMAGING WIND AND

PERHAPS TORNADOES.

IT MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD

CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER IMPULSE DEAMPLIFIES.

HOWEVER...INCREASING MODEL VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF

THIS SYSTEM...COUPLED WITH PROBABILITY OF DECREASING AVAILABLE

INSTABILITY...RESULTS IN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO EXTEND THE AREAL

DELINEATION. THEREAFTER...INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SPREAD

IN MODEL DATA CONCERNING LARGE-SCALE PATTERN DEVELOPMENTS BECOMES

MUCH TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL

SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.